Technical Papers on Future Scenarios
Users of climate scenarios need to be familiar with the methods used to develop the scenarios and the assumptions underlying the scenario development. We invite you to read the technical papers that we have published on the methodology used to produce the scenario ensembles for the Pileus Project.
Journal Articles and Conference Proceedings that Describe the Methodology
Used to Develop the Climate Scenarios
The journal articles where the methodology for the temperature scenarios was first published are:
- Palutikof, J.P., J.A. Winkler, C.M. Goodess, and J.A. Andresen, 1997: The simulation of daily time series from GCM output. Part 1: Comparison of model data with observations. Journal of Climate, 10, 2497-2513.
- Winkler, J.A., J.P. Palutikof, J.A. Andresen, and C.M. Goodess, 1997: The simulation of daily time series from GCM output. Part 2: A sensitivity analysis of empirical transfer functions for downscaling GCM simulations. Journal of Climate, 10, 2514-2532.
The following journal article highlights possible changes in temperature parameters relevant for specialized agriculture based on scenarios from earlier GCMs:
- Winkler, J.A., J.A. Andresen, G. Guentchev, and R.D. Kriegel, 2002: Possible impacts of projected climate change on specialized agriculture in the Great Lakes Region. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 28, 608-625.
A conference paper that describes the uncertainty associated with local climates scenarios is:
- Winkler, J.A., J.A. Andresen, G. Guentchev, E.A. Waller, and J.T. Brown, 2003. Using ANOVA to estimate the relative magnitude of uncertainty in a suite of climate change scenarios. Preprints, 14th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, American Meteorological Society, Long Beach, California.